We already have all the technology.
- Solar and wind for electricity generation (possibly supported by ocean/wave energy at a later stage)
- Electric vehicles for transport
- Heat-pumps for domestic heating
- Green hydrogen for industrial applications
- Solar fuels, possibly based on direct air carbon capture, for aviation
- Rapidly developing batteries for storage, possibly supported by mechanical storage and power-to-gas/power-to-hydrogen to power as bridging technologies
And – they are a lot cheaper:
Fossil fuels are no longer competitive.
Renewable electricity is cheaper to produce, and electric devices are cheaper than oil-burning engines and turbines. The main reason for this is the “renewable factor”, and efficiency:
- The wind & the sun are for free. Fuel to produce electricity in fossil power plants is not.
- The thermal efficiency of burning fuels is limited by the laws of physics. The maximum theoretical efficiency grade of a combustion engine is 35%. The efficiency grade of an electric motor is close to 100%.
The cost difference between renewables and fossils is not just a fraction. Or 10, 20 ,30, or even 50%. The difference is a factor of between to and three. Fossils are between 200 % and 300% more expensive than renewables.
And the best part? The new renewable and electric technologies are still getting cheaper.
“Only he who refuses to count to two
is still investing in fossil energy.”
Electricity generation cost
Comparison of renewable vs. fossil electricity generation cost ranges in 2023, measured in LCOE (levelised cost of electricity). The LCOE includes all cost – capital cost, maintenance, operation – over the life-time of the installation, but excludes all subsidies.
Data: Lazard
Solar PV and wind have been the cheapest form of electricity for a couple of years now. According to the international Energy Agency, renewable electricity is the cheapest form of energy in human history.
Electric vehicle cost & operation
Cost comparison between electric car and gasoline/diesel car for a mid-class sedan: the key cost component of EVs has been the battery. However, due to large investments in R&D and mass production, the energy density of batteries has increased while costs have decreased significantly. EVs and ICE vehicles are now on par regarding purchase price.
Because an EV does not need a big motor nor transition gear, building an EV is cheaper than a combustion-engine car. Maintenance and repair cost are also lower due to the much smaller number of moving parts within the vehicle.
Operating cost of an electric car vs. a gasoline car (mid-range sedan): electricity cost and gasoline cost vary highly from country to country; a fixed price therefore cannot be calculated. However, the range of cost is strongly in favour of electric cars, with the median being 7 U$/100km for EVs, and 12 U$/100km for ICE cars.
The reason for this is the much higher efficiency of an electric motor (up to 100%) vs the combustion engine (max 35%). An Ev in the mid-range calss uses 20 KWh/100km, while an ICE uses 8l of gasoline, wich equals 72 kWh.
Batteries & Storage
That is good news for the energy transition:
- There will be sufficient and cheap battery storage capacity to run the grid on renewable energy. Even if we electrify everything.
- Depending on government policies, that point will be reached sooner, – or later. With a global climate tax as proposed here, no later than 2035.
The only aerea that does not yet have an electric solution is aviation. Even if the battery learning curve remains steep, commercial airliners – shy of an unlikely revolutionary breakthrough – will not be able to fly with batteries before 2045. The solution here lies in much smaller planes, and/or the mass deployment of green generated (i.e. powered by renewables) synthetic fuels (a business model for the Gulf States?).
Battery costs and capacity
Cost will decrease further in the coming years, while capacity and energy density are expected to increase further.
With the increasing use of electronic devices and later electric vehicles, the need for lighter and better batteries has increased sharply, leading to increased investment in the development of battery technologies.
The cost of batteries – measured by electricity storage capacity – has dropped by more then 70% in the last ten years.
Demand for batteries is only increasing, Rapidly. It is a billion-dollar business. Not surprisingly the battery R&D investments have increased further, meaning we can expect further cost reductions. The lower cost of batteries has been one of the main drivers making the electrification of everything cheaper than burning fossils.
Battery efficiency – measured in energy density, i.e. the power saving capacity per unit – has improved significantely, and is now in a steep learning curve.
Given the high investments in battery technology worldwide, we can expect further positive development.
Heatpumps
- Heat pumps work similar to a refrigerators, using temperature differences.
- Because a heat pump does not generate heat, it transports heat. Thanks do this process, a heat pump can transfer more heat than the energy input. In contrast, a fuel-burning heating device can achieve a maximum of 100% heat compared to the energy input (in most cases, around 80%). Compared to buring fossils, a heat-pump is between 200 and 540% more efficient.
- Heat pumps can work both ways: they can heat – or they can cool, adding an extra incentive in times of rising temperatures.
Because they are cheaper in operation.
